Postgraduate Science

Guest · Admin login

Probability Theory & Random Variables

Probability spaces, expectation, the law of large numbers, and the central limit theorem.

A probability space is a triple $(\Omega, \mathcal F, P)$: a sample space, a σ-algebra of events, and a probability measure with $P(\Omega) = 1$.

A random variable $X: \Omega \to \mathbb R$ is a measurable function. Its expectation is $\mathbb E[X] = \int X\, dP$. Variance: $\mathrm{Var}(X) = \mathbb E[X^2] - \mathbb E[X]^2$.

Law of large numbers: for i.i.d. $X_1, X_2, \ldots$ with mean $\mu$,

$$\bar X_n = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n X_i \;\xrightarrow{n\to\infty}\; \mu \quad (\text{a.s. and in probability}).$$

Central limit theorem: with finite variance $\sigma^2$,

$$\sqrt n\,(\bar X_n - \mu) \;\Rightarrow\; \mathcal N(0, \sigma^2).$$

The Gaussian shape is universal — it captures the asymptotic distribution of averages of essentially any well-behaved variable. Independence is the key assumption.

Interactive: sample means approaching a Gaussian

Press "draw" to sample $n$ uniform variables, average them, repeat many times, and plot the histogram of sample means against $\mathcal N(0.5, \tfrac{1}{12n})$.

Quiz

1. Variance of $X$ equals:
2. Central limit theorem requires (sufficient form):
3. For independent $X, Y$, $\mathrm{Var}(X + Y)$ equals:
4. Strong law of large numbers gives convergence:
5. Markov's inequality: $P(X \geq a) \leq$ ? (for $X \geq 0$, $a > 0$):
6. Two events $A, B$ are independent iff: